Assessing the future of immigration: the number of work-based residence permits is expected to grow while applications from students are declining

The Finnish Immigration Service's foresight network has updated its estimates of application numbers in 2026 and 2027. The estimates include first applications submitted by all employees, students and asylum seekers as well as applications for temporary protection.

The foresight network is an expert group that meets three times a year to prepare quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and asylum seekers arriving in this country.

Industrial projects drive the number of work-based applications

The number of work-based residence permit applications has started to increase after declining for several years. Between January and May 2026, 6,156 first work-based applications were submitted, which is 16% more than in the same period in 2025.

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of first work-based residence permit applications will be slightly higher this year than in 2025. The number of applications is expected to be 11,000–13,000 in 2026 and 12,000–14,000 in 2027.

“This year's increase in application numbers is partly explained by recruitment of foreign labour for industrial projects, for example in the shipping and shipyard industry and for data centres. This is particularly prominent in Southwest Finland, Satakunta and Kymenlaakso. A moderate increase in work-based applications will also be possible in 2027 if the Finnish economy develops positively," says Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Information Services.

Students' application numbers are declining

The Finnish Immigration Service has adjusted downwards its estimate of residence permit applications submitted for studies. In its updated forecast, the Service estimates that between 11,000 and 12,000 applications will be submitted both this year and in 2027.

"The previous estimate was reduced as the number of applications submitted by students decreased by 25% between January and May this year compared to the same period last year. This decrease is probably due to the application fee of EUR 100 introduced in the higher education institutions' joint application process at the beginning of 2025, tuition fees that cover the institutions' expenses to be charged in full from autumn 2026 on, and the challenging employment situation in Finland," Hirvelä says.

The trend in students' residence permit applications is affected by such factors as the number of intake places on international degree programmes, the political, economic and social situation in key countries of origin, and the labour market situation and attractiveness of Finland as a country of study and residence.

The number of asylum applications remains low

In step with the general EU trend, the numbers of asylum applications in Finland and other Nordic countries have been declining. In January–May 2026, 717 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland, which is 7% less than in the same period last year.

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that, in 2026 and 2027, between 1,500 and 2,500 first asylum applications will be submitted each year.

"There are currently no factors in sight that would indicate a significant growth in the number of applications this year and next year. The decline in asylum seeker numbers and the more stringent EU immigration policy, combined with internal border controls on the land borders of several countries in the Schengen area, are likely to keep the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland moderate," Hirvelä says.

Need for temporary protection continues

The number of temporary protection applications submitted by those fleeing Ukraine has remained steady this year. In January-May 2026, a total of 3,215 first temporary protection applications were submitted, which is 3% less than in the same period last year.

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that 8,000 to 10,000 applicants for temporary protection will arrive in Finland both in 2026 and 2027. Anticipating the situation in Ukraine and the number of applicants for temporary protection arriving in Finland is, however, associated with several factors of uncertainty. Unless the war situation changes, it is likely that Ukrainians will continue to migrate to the EU.

Media enquiries

• Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Information Services, email: firstname.lastname@migri.fi, tel. 0295 433 037 (Finnish Immigration Service’s telephone number for media enquiries)
• Web page: Forecasts | Finnish Immigration Service