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Forecasts about the number of applications

On this page you will find the following forecasts:

The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network consists of experts who meet three times a year to make quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and about asylum seekers arriving in Finland. The Finnish Immigration Service makes the projections in cooperation with different interest groups, and is responsible for coordinating the work of the foresight network. The network’s operations are directed by an inter-administrative steering group consisting of different authorities.

The Finnish Immigration Service has updated its application volume projections for 2025 and 2026 in October 2025.

The forecasts are updated three times a year and published on the website of the Finnish Immigration Service. This page was last updated on 24 November 2025.

Continuing need for temporary protection

In January–October 2025, a total of 9,937 applications for temporary protection were submitted, which is approximately 10% less than during the corresponding period last year. The number of applications remained steady during the first months of 2025 and increased in the summer due to Ukrainian seasonal workers. According to a government decision that entered into force in Ukraine at the end of August, men aged 18–22 are allowed to leave the country and return to the country freely despite the country being in a state of war. The number of applications for temporary protection submitted by young men has increased also in Finland during the autumn.

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of applicants for temporary protection arriving in Finland will be 8,000–12,000 in 2025 and 2026.

The number of applicants arriving from Ukraine depends on factors such as:

  • the duration and extent of the war
  • the development of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine
  • the strain on the reception capacity especially in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries and in the Baltic countries
  • National changes in social security or temporary protection conditions in the main host countries for Ukrainians.

Anticipating the situation in Ukraine and the number of applicants for temporary protection arriving in Finland is associated with many factors of uncertainty. If there are no changes in the state of war, it is likely that the migration of Ukrainians to the EU continues. 

Temporary protection has been extended until March 2027.

Number of asylum applications predicted to remain on a moderate level 

The Finnish Immigration Service’s application volume forecasts do not cover the instrumentalised migration that may be targeted against Finland and do not take a position on the effects of such operations. Preparation for combatting instrumentalisation operations is part of the preparedness and contingency activities of the administrative department of the Ministry of the Interior.

This year, the number of asylum applications in the territory of the European Union has remained lower than last year. The number of asylum applications has declined due to changes in push factors affecting the migration of citizens of certain countries (especially Syria). The entry into the territory of the EU has also become more difficult (from West Africa to the Canary Islands, for example). Despite the decline, the number of asylum applications submitted in the EU+ countries was 399,000 in total in January–June. There are still significant push factors in the surrounding regions due to, for example, conflicts, social instability and lack of economic prospects in the countries of origin.

The number of asylum applications in the Nordic countries including Finland has declined, following the general trend in the EU. A total of 1,709 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland in January–October 2025, which is 15% less than during the corresponding period last year. 

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that a total of 1,500–2,500 first asylum applications will be submitted in Finland per year in 2025 and 2026. No changes were made to the previous estimate. There are no factors on the horizon for the current and next year that could be expected to increase the number of applications compared to the current situation. The asylum seeker situation in the EU, which is calmer than last year, along with internal border controls in the Schengen area, is likely to keep the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland moderate.

However, there are uncertainties about the estimated number of asylum applications. For example, sudden changes in the main countries of origin and transit can have unexpected effects that can extend to Finland.

The number of student applications to Finland is expected to increase in the coming years

A total of 11,839 applications for a first residence permit for studies were submitted in January–October 2025, which is 5% less than in the corresponding period last year. One of the probable reasons behind the stagnation in the number of applications compared to the growth in recent years is the application fee of EUR 100 that was introduced in the joint application procedure concerning higher education at the beginning of 2025. It has decreased the number of non-EU and non-EEA citizens applying for a student place in higher education in Finland. As in previous years, South Asian countries stood out as top applicant countries in January–October. 

The Finnish Immigration Service predicts that the number of applicants who apply for a residence permit on the basis of studies will remain high, even though the number of applications is not expected to increase in the next few years. The introduction of full costing of tuition fees in higher education and upper secondary education is expected to decrease the number of international students, at least in the short term. According to the estimate, the number of applications will be 13,000–14,000 in 2025 and around 13,000 in 2026.

Factors that explain the strong increase in the number of students’ residence permit applications in recent years include amendments to legislation on students and researchers that entered into force in spring 2022 (such as the possibility to issue a residence permit for the entire period it takes to complete a degree, higher education students’ A permits, increase in maximum permitted working hours). In addition, students are currently arriving to study in Finland especially from countries of origin where economic push factors (including standard of living, economic development, employment opportunities) maintain emigration. However, the number of international students arriving in Finland primarily depends on the intake of international degree programmes and programmes taught through other than the national languages as well as the trend in uptake of places. 

The number of first-time applications for residence permits by students is influenced by factors including:

  • the available intake for international degree programmes
  • the political, financial and social situation in key countries of departure
  • Finland’s attractiveness as a place to live and study.

A challenging economic and employment situation is reflected in the number of work-based residence permit applications

In January–October 2025, the number of applications for a first work-based residence permit was 9,593, which is approximately 29% less than during the same period last year. The total number of applications this year is roughly at the same level as in 2018. The slow economic growth and the increase in unemployment in Finland in recent years together with the uncertainties regarding the global economy explain the downward trend in the number of applications. 

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of applications for a first work-based residence permit will remain at the current level in 2026. According to the estimate, the number of applications will be 11,000 in 2025 and approximately 11,000–13,000 in 2026. 

Anticipation of trends in work-based immigration is associated with significant factors of uncertainty. The change in the number of applications for residence permits depends mainly on economic developments. Despite economic fluctuations, the ageing population and skills shortages are creating a need for foreign workers in Finland. Therefore, the number of work-based residence permit applications is expected to grow again when the economic situation stabilises. 

The number of first work-based residence permit applications depends on factors including

  • the weaker economic situation and its duration
  • the development of international recruitment networks
  • national meaures, and
  • the decline of the working-age population, and labour market mismatches.