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Forecasts about the number of applications

On this page you will find the following forecasts:

The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network consists of experts who meet three times a year to make quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and about asylum seekers arriving in Finland. The Finnish Immigration Service makes the projections in cooperation with different interest groups, and is responsible for coordinating the work of the foresight network. The network’s operations are directed by an inter-administrative steering group consisting of different authorities. 

The Finnish Immigration Service has updated its application volume projections for 2025 and 2026 in December 2024.

The forecasts are updated three times a year and published on the website of the Finnish Immigration Service. This page was last updated on 30 January 2025.

Continuing need for temporary protection 

In 2024, a total of 12,617 applications for temporary protection were submitted. This is approximately 35% less compared to the year 2023. Applications were submitted evenly throughout the year, with the exception of the spike during the summer months when many Ukrainians came to Finland for seasonal work. 

According to the updated projections of the Finnish Immigration Service, 8,000–12,000 applicants for temporary protection will arrive in Finland in 2025. 

The number of applicants arriving from Ukraine depends on factors such as:

  • the duration and extent of the war
  • the development of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine
  • the strain on the reception capacity especially in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries and in the Baltic countries
  • National changes in social security or temporary protection conditions in the main host countries for Ukrainians 
  • the number of Ukrainians who move between EU countries.

The number of applications expected to arrive in 2025 involves considerable uncertainties, as it is difficult to predict how the war in Ukraine and the resulting refugee situation will develop. The EU General Affairs Council decided in June 2024 to extend the temporary protection until March 2026 for Ukrainians fleeing the war. 

Number of asylum applications predicted to remain on a moderate level 

The Finnish Immigration Service’s application volume forecasts do not cover the instrumentalised migration that may be targeted against Finland and do not take a position on the effects of such operations. Preparation for combatting instrumentalisation operations is part of the preparedness and contingency activities of the administrative department of the Ministry of the Interior.

The number of asylum applications has remained at a high level in the European Union since 2022. The high number of applications is partly due to protracted conflicts, authoritarian regimes, lack of financial prospects, and the strain on the internal refugee situation in transit countries outside the EU. However, the increase in the number of asylum applications submitted in Europe has not had any major impact on application volumes in Finland or in the other Nordic countries. In 2024, a total of 2,405 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland. This is approximately 47% less compared to the year 2023.

The expected number of asylum application per year is 3,000 on average

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of first asylum applications submitted in 2025 will be 3,000–4,000. 

The increase of the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland is currently being restrained by factors such as Finland’s geographical location and Europe’s internal border control and control of external borders. Factors that increase the attractiveness of central and southern Europe in comparison to Finland include the large diaspora communities and networks that exist in these countries, and employment possibilities. Yet, there may be sudden and unexpected changes in the number of applications for international protection. If the internal refugee situation in significant countries of transit (such as Türkiye, Lebanon, Libya) becomes strained, migration to the European Union and to Finland may increase. 

The number of student applications to Finland is expected to increase in the coming years

A record number of first residence permit applications were submitted by students in 2024, totalling 14,163 applications. The Finnish Immigration Service predicts that the number of student applicants will remain at a high level. 

The agency expects to receive 15,000 applications in 2025, and 16,000 applications in 2026.

The significant increase in applications for student residence permits can be explained by factors such as changes in the legislation on residence permits for students and researchers, as well as an increase in international study programmes and student numbers at higher education institutions. In addition, information about Finland is spread quickly on social media by students already living in the country, making Finland a more attractive place to study. 

The number of first-time applications for residence permits by students is influenced by factors including:

  • the available intake for international degree programmes
  • the political, financial and social situation in key countries of departure
  • Finland’s attractiveness as a place to live and study.

Economic downturn is reflected in the number of work-based residence permit applications

In 2024, a total of 15,024 applications for a first work-based residence permit were submitted. This is 12% less than in 2023. The number of incoming applications was exceptionally high in June 2024 because of the changed visa rules for pickers of wild berries but decreased steadily after the summer.

The projected number of applications for 2025 is 15,000. The projection for 2026 is 16,500 applications. (The previous projections were 17,000 applications in 2025 and 18,500 applications in 2026). 

The change in the number of applications for residence permits depends mainly on economic developments. Despite economic fluctuations, the ageing population and skills shortages are creating a need for foreign workers in Finland. Therefore, the number of work-based residence permit applications is expected to remain at a high level.

The number of first work-based residence permit applications depends on factors including 

  • the weaker economic situation and its duration
  • the development of international recruitment networks 
  • national meaures, and 
  • the decline of the working-age population, and labour market mismatches.