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Forecasts about the number of applications

On this page you will find the following forecasts:

The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network consists of experts who meet three times a year to make quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and about asylum seekers arriving in Finland. The forecasts have been made in cooperation with different authorities and interest groups. The Finnish Immigration Service is responsible for coordinating the work of the foresight network. The network’s operations are directed by an inter-administrative steering group consisting of different authorities.

The foresight network has prepared forecasts about the number of applicants for international protection in 2023 and 2024. Forecasts about the number of residence permit applications submitted on the basis of work and studies will be published in the spring of 2023.

The forecasts are updated three times a year and published on the website of the Finnish Immigration Service. This page was last updated on 19 April 2023.

Number of applications for temporary protection remains high

According to the foresight network's updated projection, 20,000–30,000 applicants for temporary protection will arrive in Finland in 2023. This is down from the earlier estimate of 30,000–40,000 applicants. In line with the expected continuation of the war in 2024, that year is estimated to see 10,000–15,000 applicants for temporary protection arrive in Finland.

The expert group decided to revise its previous forecast downward as the impact of winter on the movement of Ukrainians to EU countries was less pronounced than expected. The number of applicants for temporary protection in Finland has remained relatively stable since late 2022. 

The number of applicants arriving from Ukraine depends, among other things, on

  • the duration and scope of the war
  • the development of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine
  • the strain on reception capacity especially in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries and in the Baltic countries 
  • the number of Ukrainians who move between EU countries.

As it is difficult to predict how the war in Ukraine and the refugee situation resulting from the war will develop, there are considerable uncertainties regarding the estimated numbers of applications in 2023 and 2024. 

Number of asylum applications is expected to increase moderately

The number of asylum applications was high in the European Union in 2022. The large number of applications is linked with the political and economic situation in countries of origin and transit, prolonged conflicts and the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, among other things. In addition, smuggling routes have become more active, which has increased illegal entry into the EU. The increase in the number of asylum applications in Europe has not had a major impact on application volumes in Finland, however.

A total of 3,100 first asylum applications submitted in Finland last year

After 2015–2016, the number of applicants for international protection has been stable in Finland, except for 2019–2021 when the number of applicants was notably lower because of the travel restrictions imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic. In 2022, the number of applications was back at the same level as it was before the pandemic. A total of 3,100 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland, excluding applications from Ukrainian citizens.

The main reason behind the total increase in the number of asylum seekers in Finland is Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which has led to an increased number of Russian asylum seekers in Finland.

Russian citizens submitted 1,100 first asylum applications in 2022

There was a marked increase in the number of asylum applications submitted by Russian nationals after Russia declared a military mobilisation. Following the imposition of entry and visa restrictions in late September, asylum application volumes declined rapidly and have remained low since.

According to the foresight network's revised projections, Russian nationals are expected to submit 800–1,200 asylum applications per year in 2023 and 2024 (down from the earlier estimate of 1,000–1,500 applications). 

The number of asylum seekers depends, among other things, on

  • entry and visa restrictions imposed by Finland
  • whether Russian citizens who already have entered the country with a visa will apply for asylum
  • the internal situation in Russia
  • the actions of the Russian border authorities. 

Approximately 4,000 asylum applications are expected per year

The foresight network now expects 3,500–4,500 first asylum applications per year in 2023 and 2024. 

The reasons behind the expected increase include prolonged conflicts in countries of origin most relevant to Finland and the strained refugee situation within transit countries such as Türkiye, Lebanon and Libya. The control of the internal and external borders of Europe and the geographical distance between Finland and the key entry routes limits the increase, which is expected to remain moderate in the next few years.

However, there may be sudden and unexpected changes in the number of applications for international protection.

Number of student applicants expected to remain high

2022 saw a record number of first residence permit applications submitted by students (9,855 in total). According to the foresight network's estimate, the number of applicants for residence permits for studies is also set to remain high in the future. 

The high figure for 2022 is estimated to result from students who had begun their studies remotely or deferred the start of their course due to the coronavirus pandemic moving to Finland during that year. Application volumes are therefore projected to decrease slightly in 2023 and 2024, but they are nevertheless expected to remain at a historically high level. 

The agency expects to receive 8,500 applications in 2023, and 9,000 applications in 2024.

The number of first residence permit applications submitted by students depends on factors including

  • the available intake for international degree programmes
  • the acceptance rate of admission offers
  • Finland’s attractiveness as a place to live and study
  • education exports and the number of students attending various courses that do not lead to a qualification.

Increase in residence permit application volumes as demand for foreign labour rises

Following a record number of first work-based residence permit applications submitted in 2022 (20,961 in total), a slight decrease is predicted for this year. The volume of first work-based residence permit applications reflects factors including global economic fluctuations, national action plans, and the development of international recruitment networks. Regardless of economic fluctuations, skills shortages and an ageing population increase the need for foreign labour. 

The agency expects to receive 19,000 applications in 2023, and 21,500 applications in 2024. 

The number of first work-based residence permit applications depends on factors including 

  • economic fluctuations
  • the development of international recruitment networks 
  • national action plans 
  • the decline of the working-age population, and 
  • labour market mismatches.