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Forecasts about the number of applications

On this page you will find the following forecasts:

The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network consists of experts who meet three times a year to make quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and about asylum seekers arriving in Finland. The Finnish Immigration Service makes the projections in cooperation with different interest groups, and is responsible for coordinating the work of the foresight network. The network’s operations are directed by an inter-administrative steering group consisting of different authorities. 

The Finnish Immigration Service updated its estimates of application numbers for 2025 and 2026 in February 2025.

The forecasts are updated three times a year and published on the website of the Finnish Immigration Service. This page was last updated on 18 March 2025.

Continuing need for temporary protection 

In 2024, a total of 12,617 applications for temporary protection were submitted. This is approximately 35% less compared to the year 2023. Applications were submitted evenly throughout the year, with the exception of the spike during the summer months when many Ukrainians came to Finland for seasonal work. In January 2025, the number of applications dropped under 700 for the first time since the start of Russia's war of aggression and totalled 647 applications.

According to the updated projections of the Finnish Immigration Service, 8,000–12,000 applicants for temporary protection will arrive in Finland in 2025. 

The number of applicants arriving from Ukraine depends on factors such as:

  • the duration and extent of the war
  • the development of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine
  • the strain on the reception capacity especially in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries and in the Baltic countries
  • National changes in social security or temporary protection conditions in the main host countries for Ukrainians 
  • the number of Ukrainians who move between EU countries.

Anticipating the situation in Ukraine and the number of applicants for temporary protection arriving in Finland is associated with many factors of uncertainty. One of the key factors affecting the situation is ceasefire talks and, consequently, a potential ceasefire in 2025. The possible ceasefire could have a significant impact on the number of applicants for temporary protection in Finland. Decisions on extending temporary protection will be made by the General Affairs Council of the European Union. Under the current decision, temporary protection for Ukrainians fleeing the war will extend until March 2026.

Number of asylum applications predicted to remain on a moderate level 

The Finnish Immigration Service’s application volume forecasts do not cover the instrumentalised migration that may be targeted against Finland and do not take a position on the effects of such operations. Preparation for combatting instrumentalisation operations is part of the preparedness and contingency activities of the administrative department of the Ministry of the Interior.

The number of asylum applications has remained at a high level in the European Union since 2022. The background factors behind the large number of applications include conflicts, social instability in countries of origin, lack of economic prospects and stress caused by the internal refugee situation of non-EU transit countries. However, the increase in the number of asylum applications submitted in Europe has not had any major impact on application volumes in Finland or in the other Nordic countries. In 2024, a total of 2,399 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland. This is approximately 47% less compared to the year 2023. A total of 146 applications were submitted in January 2025. 

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that 2,000 to 3,000 first asylum applications will be submitted in 2025 (previous estimate 3,000 to 4,000). This means that application numbers are also expected to remain within moderate limits this year.

The number of applications in 2026 is put at 3,000 to 4,000. In particular, this estimate is based on the strength and partial increase of push factors (including climate change) and the growing number of asylum seekers in EU territory.

Any significant increase in the number of first asylum applications will be curbed by the geographical distance to Finland, internal border controls in the Schengen area, and the greater attraction of Central and Southern Europe compared to Finland. Sudden changes in situations in key countries of origin and transit may, however, result in unexpected spillover effects reaching Finland. 

The number of student applications to Finland is expected to increase in the coming years

A record number of first applications for residence permits was submitted by students in 2024, or 14,163 applications in total, which is 10% more than in 2023. As in previous years, nationals of South Asian countries were prominent among these applicants (including Bangladesh, Nepal, India and Sri Lanka).

An exceptional number of first residence permit applications was submitted in January 2025, totalling 779. This is almost double the number received in January 2024. The higher education institutions’ joint application process in the autumn has grown in importance in recent years, which may this time also have affected the number of residence permit applications submitted in January.

According to the Finnish Immigration Service’s estimate, the number of applicants for residence permits for studies will continue to remain high. This figure is expected to be 15,000 in 2025 and 16,000 in 2026.

Factors that explain the strong increase in the number of students’ residence permit applications in recent years include amendments to legislation on students and researchers that entered into force in spring 2022 (such as the possibility to issue a residence permit for the entire period it takes to complete a degree, higher education students’ A permits, increase in maximum permitted working hours). In addition, students are currently arriving to study in Finland especially from countries of origin where economic push factors (including standard of living, economic development, employment opportunities) maintain emigration. However, the number of international students arriving in Finland primarily depends on the intake of international degree programmes and programmes taught through other than the national languages as well as the trend in uptake of places. 

The number of first-time applications for residence permits by students is influenced by factors including:

  • the available intake for international degree programmes
  • the political, financial and social situation in key countries of departure
  • Finland’s attractiveness as a place to live and study.

A challenging economic and employment situation is reflected in the number of work-based residence permit applications

In 2024, a total of 15,024 applications for a first work-based residence permit were submitted. This is 12% less than in 2023. The number of incoming applications was exceptionally high in June 2024 because of the changed visa rules for pickers of wild berries but decreased steadily after the summer. A clear majority (63%) of the residence permit applications submitted last year concerned residence permits for employment. 

In January 2025, a total of 858 first applications for residence permits for an employee were submitted. The last time the number of applications submitted in January reached this level was in 2018.

According to the Finnish Immigration Service’s estimates, the number of first applications for employee's residence permits will be lower than in previous years in 2025. The number of applications is estimated to be 11,000 in 2025 (previous estimate 15,000). The trend in residence permit applications is expected to react to positive economic signals next year, and the application numbers are estimated to once again reach a level higher than in the pre-pandemic years. In 2026, the number of applications is estimated to be 15,000 (previous estimate 16,500).  

Anticipation of trends in work-based immigration is associated with significant factors of uncertainty. The change in the number of applications for residence permits depends mainly on economic developments. Despite economic fluctuations, the ageing population and skills shortages are creating a need for foreign workers in Finland. Therefore, the number of work-based residence permit applications is expected to remain at a high level.

The number of first work-based residence permit applications depends on factors including 

  • the weaker economic situation and its duration
  • the development of international recruitment networks 
  • national meaures, and 
  • the decline of the working-age population, and labour market mismatches.