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Forecasts about the number of applications

On this page you will find the following forecasts:

The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network consists of experts who meet three times a year to make quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and about asylum seekers arriving in Finland. The Finnish Immigration Service makes the projections in cooperation with different interest groups, and is responsible for coordinating the work of the foresight network. The network’s operations are directed by an inter-administrative steering group consisting of different authorities. 

The Finnish Immigration Service has updated its application volume projections for 2024 and 2025 in September 2024.

The forecasts are updated three times a year and published on the website of the Finnish Immigration Service. This page was last updated on 21 October 2024.

Continuing need for temporary protection 

In January–August 2024, a total of 9,201 applications for temporary protection were submitted, which is approximately 41% less compared to the previous year’s figures during the same period. In the beginning of the year, applications were steadily submitted, with an average of 750 applications per month. However, there was a significant increase in the number of incoming applications in early summer as Ukrainians arrived in Finland to do seasonal work. The same type of increase was seen in the previous year as well.

According to the updated forecast of the Finnish Immigration Service, 10,000–12,000 applicants for temporary protection will arrive in Finland in 2024. The earlier minimum estimate of 8,000 applications was raised based on actual application figures. 

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that 8,000–12,000 applicants for temporary protection will arrive in Finland from Ukraine in 2025. Compared to the earlier estimate (5,000–10,000 applications), the new estimate increased moderately.

The number of applicants arriving from Ukraine depends on factors such as:

  • the duration and extent of the war
  • the development of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine
  • the strain on the reception capacity especially in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries and in the Baltic countries
  • National changes in social security or temporary protection conditions in the main host countries for Ukrainians 
  • the number of Ukrainians who move between EU countries.

There are considerable uncertainties regarding the estimated number of applications in 2024–2025, as it is difficult to predict how the war in Ukraine and the resulting refugee situation develops. The EU General Affairs Council decided in June 2024 to extend the temporary protection until March 2026 for Ukrainians fleeing from the war. 

Number of asylum applications predicted to remain on a moderate level 

The Finnish Immigration Service’s projections do not take a position on how the number of asylum seekers might change as a result of hybrid influence efforts directed against Finland or as a result of instrumentalised migration. The projections for these specific aspects are therefore not included in the current estimates of the number of applications. The preparation for instrumentalisation operations is part of the preparedness and contingency activities of the administrative department of the Ministry of the Interior. 

The number of asylum applications has remained at a high level in the European Union since 2022. The high number of applications is partly due to protracted conflicts, authoritarian regimes, lack of financial prospects, and the strain on the internal refugee situation in transit countries outside the EU. However, the increase in the number of asylum applications submitted in Europe has not had a major impact on application volumes in Finland or in the other Nordic countries.

Number of first asylum applications has returned to pre-pandemic levels

In 2023, a total of 4,559 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland. Of the total number of asylum seekers, approximately 1,300 arrived in Finland via the eastern border in July–December. In January–August 2024, a total of 1,592 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland, which is approximately 27% less compared to the previous year’s figures during the same period. 

Number of asylum applications submitted by Russian nationals has remained low

There was a marked increase in the number of asylum applications submitted by Russian citizens after Russia declared a military mobilisation in the autumn of 2022. However, following the imposition of entry and visa restrictions in late September, asylum application volumes declined rapidly and have remained low. The opportunities for Russian citizens to apply for asylum remain limited due to existing entry restrictions at the Finnish-Russian border, limited visa issuance, and the inspection activities of the Russian border authorities.

The expected number of asylum application per year is 3,000 on average

The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of first asylum applications submitted in 2024 will be 2,000–3,000. The estimate is based on this year’s actual application figures. 

For the year 2025, the estimated number of applications is 3,000–4,000 (the previous estimate was 3,500–4,500). 

The increase of the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland is currently being restrained by factors such as Finland’s geographical location and Europe’s internal border control and control of external borders. Factors that increase the attractiveness of central and southern Europe in comparison to Finland include the large diaspora communities and networks that exist in these countries, and employment possibilities. Yet, there may be sudden and unexpected changes in the number of applications for international protection. If the internal refugee situation in significant countries of transit (such as Türkiye, Lebanon, Libya) becomes strained, migration to the European Union and to Finland may increase. 

The number of student applications to Finland is expected to increase in the coming years

In 2023, a record number of first-time applications for residence permits on the basis of studies were submitted, totalling 12,867 applications. The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of student applicants will remain on a high level.

In January–August 2024, a total of 10,730 applications were submitted. This is 7% more than the year before. 

The number of applications is expected to reach 14,000 in 2024 and 15,000 in 2025.

The significant increase in applications for student residence permits can be explained by factors such as changes in the legislation on residence permits for students and researchers, as well as an increase in international study programmes and student numbers at higher education institutions. In addition, information about Finland is spread quickly on social media by students already living in the country, making Finland a more attractive place to study. 

The number of first-time applications for residence permits by students is influenced by factors including:

  • the available intake for international degree programmes
  • the political, financial and social situation in key countries of departure
  • Finland’s attractiveness as a place to live and study.

Economic downturn is reflected in the number of work-based residence permit applications

The total number of first-time applications for residence permits based on employment in 2023 fell by about 19% from the record high of the previous year. A total of 16,999 applications were submitted. Although the number of applications was significantly lower than in 2022, it was still higher than in 2018–2021.

The number of first work-based residence permit applications submitted in January–August 2024 was 11,473, which is 2% lower in comparison to the same time period in 2023. Applications have been submitted fairly steadily during the year, except for the exceptionally high numbers in June due to the changed visa rules for pickers of wild berries. Berry pickers from Thailand had to exceptionally apply for a residence permit for an employed person for the harvest season 2024.

The projected number of applications for 2024 is 16,500, and the projection for 2025 is 17,000 applications. (The previous estimates were 19,000 applications in 2024 and 20,500 applications in 2025). 

The change in the number of applications for residence permits depends mainly on economic developments. Despite economic fluctuations, the ageing population and skills shortages are creating a need for foreign workers in Finland. Therefore, the number of work-based residence permit applications is expected to remain at a high level.

The number of first work-based residence permit applications depends on factors including 

  • the weaker economic situation and its duration
  • the development of international recruitment networks 
  • national meaures, and 
  • the decline of the working-age population, and labour market mismatches.