Application volume forecasts by Finnish Immigration Service published
The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network has updated its application volume projections for 2026 and 2027. The foresight network, which consists of several public authorities and other stakeholders, produces forecasts of migration to Finland and of the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland. The forecasts are updated three times a year.
The number of work-based applications reflects challenges in the economy and in employment
The number of applications for a first work-based residence permit submitted in 2025 was 11,324, which is approximately 25% less than in 2024. Although the total number of applications declined compared with the previous year, applications were relatively evenly submitted throughout the year. The number of applications has been influenced by Finland’s slow economic growth in recent years, by the rising unemployment, and by uncertainties in the global economy.
The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that the number of applications for a first work-based residence will remain at the current level during the present year. The number of applications submitted in 2026 is projected to be 11,000–13,000. For 2027, the number of applications is projected to be 13,500.
“The development of work-based immigration depends primarily on how the economy develops as well as on labour demand. There are uncertainties over Finland’s nascent economic growth, for example due to the situation in Iran, and even if growth occurs, the recruitment of foreign employees will reflect it with a delay. In the long term, however, the decrease of the working-age population in Finland will sustain the demand for foreign labour,” says Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Information Services.
The number of international students is not expected to rise
The number of international students has increased from 2022 onwards but turned downward for the first time in 2025. In 2025, a total of 13,565 applications for a first residence permit for studies were submitted, which is 4% less than in 2024. Behind the flattening of the growth in application numbers is the introduction of a EUR 100 application fee in joint application to higher education at the beginning of 2025.
“The introduction of tuition fees that cover the full costs of education or training in universities and upper secondary education next autumn may lead to a lower number of international students, at least in the short term. Further tightening of immigration for students and their family members is expected thereafter. We estimate that students will submit 13,000 applications in both 2026 and 2027,” says Hirvelä.
The number of asylum applications remains moderate
The number of asylum seekers in the EU area has continued to decline. In Finland, a total of 2,047 first-time asylum applications were submitted in 2025, which is 15% less than in 2024.
For 2026 and 2027, the number of first asylum applications is projected to be 1,500–2,500 annually.
“There are no indications that the number of asylum applications would rise from current levels this year or next year. The number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland is likely to remain moderate due to the decreasing number of asylum seekers in the EU area, a stricter immigration policy, and the internal border controls in Schengen countries,” says Hirvelä.
The number of applications for temporary protection for those fleeing Ukraine submitted in 2025 was 12,018, which is 5% less than in 2024. The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that 8,000–10,000 applicants for temporary protection will arrive in Finland in 2026. Temporary protection has been extended until March 2027.
Media enquiries
- Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Information Services, email: firstname.lastname@migri.fi, tel. 0295 433 037 (Finnish Immigration Service telephone number for media enquiries)
- Website: Forecasts | Finnish Immigration Service
